Can Woolly Bear Caterpillars Predict Weather?

Word around the water trough lately is that we have a mighty hard winter ahead of us here in the Northeast.  Even the Farmer’s Almanac is predicting a bitterly cold one

I was out in the barn collecting eggs yesterday evening and came across an all-black “Wooly Bear” caterpillar.  Fascinating! Legend has it that the woolly bear, a tiger moth caterpillar, can portend what weather winter will bring. How much truth is there in this old tale I wondered? Can woolly bears really predict the winter weather? And so I searched for some answers to this mystery. According to folk wisdom, when the rusty brown bands on fall woolly bears are narrow, it means a harsh winter is coming. The wider the brown band, the milder the winter will be. Did I mention the one I found was completely black.  All black!  Not one speck of rusty brown on that furry bug.   

What does a woolly bear turn into? It’s the larval form of the Isabella Tiger Moth. After its sixth and final molt, the caterpillar forms a cocoon and pupates. About two weeks later, an adult moth emerges. The tiger moth is orange-yellow with a few dark speckles on the wings and a 1.5 to 2 inch wingspan.

 

Are the woolly bear's bands really an accurate way to predict the winter weather? Dr. C.H. Curran, former curator of insects at the American Museum of Natural History in New York City, tested the woolly bears' accuracy in the 1950's. His surveys found an 80% accuracy rate for the woolly bears' weather predictions. 80%!  Now, I don’t know about you all, but that’s accurate enough to make me want to stock up extra wood for the season.